Consequences of Dryland Maize Planting Decisions Under Increased Seasonal Rainfall Variability

Shifts in rainfall frequency and intensity can lead to heavy crop loss rainfed agricultural systems. Small-scale farmers who plant with limited resources need carefully select management strategies that are well suited for their environment. Farmers must choose between planting higher-yielding varieties take longer mature lower-yielding be harvested sooner. To better understand the interactions variability, cultivar choice, cropping success, we implement an ecohydrological model accounts variation daily soil moisture converts water stress yield. We apply growing conditions of dryland central Kenya, which is a drought-prone semiarid region spatially heterogeneous rainfall. simulate stochastic rainfall, derive parameters 10-day increments from 30+ year data set. use these properties seasonal availability cultivars different maturation lengths. In agreement past studies, our analysis shows storms becoming more intense less frequent. show maize crops prone deficit part season when requirements highest. Despite potential higher-yielding, late maturing improve total harvest, find early drought-avoidant have lowest likelihood failure. light reduced totals, historical probability failure was now increasing.